The US Dollar Index and the Dow Jones Industrial (March-April 2017)
- ■ Markets: Foreign Exchange, Equity Markets
- ■ Assets: US Dollar Index (USDX) / US30 (DJIA)
Financial Markets –The General Outlook
After Donald Trump’s election, investors anticipate that high inflation will return in the US. There are some good arguments backing that assumption, including new Trump’s policies regarding tax cuts, higher public investment, and the imposition of tariffs on imported industrial goods. Lower unemployment and higher wages strengthen furthermore the prospect for higher consumer prices in the future. These inflationary anticipations create positive momentum for the US Dollar and the US equity markets. On the other hand, higher inflation means higher interest rates and that signals an escape from the bullish bond market of the past 30 years. It is no secret that since November 2016, 4 trillion USD have flown from the bond markets to the equity markets. Furthermore, as concerns equity markets, the VIX equity volatility remains close to historic lows signaling the continuation of the equity rally, at least for the time.
Chart: CBOE VIX Volatility Chart (S&P500)
Trading Rebates: » Forex Trading Rebates via Forex-Rebates.com
Applying TCI on USDX & Dow Jones Industrial
The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) applied on the US Dollar Index (USDX) and on Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The chart below shows graphically the daily TCI indications for the period of November 2010 to March 2017. The USDX (upper) chart includes the 89-day simple moving average (SMA), while the US30 (lower) chart includes the 144-day SMA.
Chart: TCI on the USDX & US30 (Nov 2010 - March 2017)
Short-Term TCI Indications on USDX (Table)
As you can see in the above TCI chart, the US Dollar Index accumulates while TCI fluctuates in a relatively narrow range. The general US dollar trend remains bullish, but the bullish momentum is weaker than it was some months ago.
These are the daily TCI Indications regarding USDX, and the forecast for the 15 trading days ahead (press the slider below to reveal the TCI table).
Table: TCI on USDX
Date
Close
High
Low
Change (%)
Volatility (%)
TCI
2017.03.09
101.97
102.23000
101.69000
-0.14%
0.5%
1.68%
2017.03.10
101.38
101.97000
101.16000
-0.58%
0.8%
1.13%
2017.03.13
101.28
101.34000
101.00000
-0.10%
0.3%
0.84%
(+1 Trading Day)
0.95%
(+2 Trading Days)
0.43%
(+3 Trading Days)
0.50%
(+4 Trading Days)
0.92%
(+5 Trading Days)
1.16%
(+6 Trading Days)
1.08%
(+7 Trading Days)
0.97%
(+8 Trading Days)
1.10%
(+9 Trading Days)
1.19%
(+10 Trading Days)
0.73%
(+11 Trading Days)
0.87%
(+12 Trading Days)
0.58%
(+13 Trading Days)
0.45%
(+14 Trading Days)
0.15%
(+15 Trading Days)
0.27%
TCI (Trading Center Indicator) is an innovative price oscillator developed by TradingCenter. ► More About TCI
Short-Term TCI Indications on Dow Jones Industrial (Table)
TCI indicates clearly that Dow Jones is trading in short-term overbought levels. (TCI recently reached +8.0%). Note that the TCI level +10% indicates major overbought market levels, evidence in the TCI chart. The short-term outlook is negative but the mid-term and the long-term US30 outlook remains positive.
These are the daily TCI Indications regarding Dow Jones, and the forecast for the 15 trading days ahead (press the slider below to reveal the TCI table).
Table: TCI on Dow Jones Industrial
Date
Close
High
Low
Volume
Change (%)
Volatility (%)
TCI
Mar 08, 2017
20,855.73
20,835.58
20,855.73
296,780,000
-0.33%
-0.10%
4.98%
Mar 09, 2017
20,858.19
20,777.16
20,858.19
275,960,000
0.01%
-0.39%
4.88%
Mar 10, 2017
20,902.98
20,827.66
20,902.98
315,430,000
0.21%
-0.36%
5.10%
(+1 Trading Day)
4.78%
(+2 Trading Days)
4.78%
(+3 Trading Days)
4.72%
(+4 Trading Days)
4.45%
(+5 Trading Days)
4.19%
(+6 Trading Days)
3.53%
(+7 Trading Days)
3.52%
(+8 Trading Days)
3.22%
(+9 Trading Days)
3.19%
(+10 Trading Days)
2.84%
(+11 Trading Days)
2.61%
(+12 Trading Days)
2.22%
(+13 Trading Days)
1.91%
(+14 Trading Days)
1.26%
(+15 Trading Days)
1.30%
■ Free Forex Trading Signals: USDX
George Protonotarios for TradingCenter
March 13th, 2017
L MORE RESOURCES • COMPARE • PAIRS
□ Forex Brokers Comparison
□ Expert Advisors (EAs)
□ Fx Seasonality Calendar
□ TCI Forex Trade Signals
□ Reviews
» EURUSD
» GBPUSD
» USDJPY
» USDCHF
» USDCAD
» AUDUSD