📶 Forex Trade Signals: USDJPY September 2014

◙ Forex Asset: USDJPY

◙ TCI Forecast: Correction (↓) is closing

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🌐 USDJPY Outlook

In numerous previous articles, we have emphasized the anticipated strength of the US Dollar. USD interest rates are expected to rise during 2015 as the Federal Reserve’s concerns about inflation begin to outweigh its concerns about unemployment. Over the past few weeks, the US Dollar has demonstrated significant strength.

This analysis focuses on the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. USDJPY is currently trading at 108.626, notably higher than the 104.337 level recorded at the beginning of September 2014. We will examine whether the current bullish trend in USDJPY is likely to continue or if a correction is approaching.

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📝 USDJPY Analysis Preface

As shown in the chart below, USDJPY has been surging for quite some time. Just two years ago, in September 2012, USDJPY was trading around 77.00—now it stands above 108.00. This significant uptrend can be attributed to the Bank of Japan’s highly accommodative monetary policy over the past two years, aimed at boosting the growth potential of Japan’s struggling economy.

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📈 USDJPY Technical Analysis - What happens next regarding USDJPY?

Regarding the long run, the ultimate target for USDJPY lies between 119.00 and 124.00—levels last seen in 2006. Honestly, I believe that during 2015, we will see USDJPY trading around 120.00. However, this won’t happen in just one or two months; the current levels must be fully absorbed before USDJPY can move higher.

Here are the nearest supply (resistance) and demand (support) levels for USDJPY.

◙ (↑) Resistance / Supply Levels:

110.75 (Strong) | 112.30 (Strong) | 114.50 (Strong)

◙ (↓) Support / Demand Levels:

107.15 | 106.65 | 104.70 | 103.80 (Strong) | 101.20 (Strong)

If we focus on the above chart we are going to see that USDJPY has already moved strongly during the past two weeks and RSI readings are found in highly overbought levels. Let’s see now what TCI indicates.

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⚙️ TCI on USDJPY

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique technical analysis tool developed by TradingCenter.

As shown in the table (use the slider), TCI indicates that USDJPY is already in overbought territory (+6.85 for the 34-period TCI and +7.7% for the 50-period TCI). This suggests a likely upcoming bearish trend for USDJPY.

🗓️ Two Possible USDJPY Turnaround Dates:

◙ 1st Target: September 19, 2014

◙ 2nd Target: September 24, 2014

Below are all TCI indications regarding USDJPY (use the slider to view).

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📊 USDJPY Statistics

Here are the USDJPY statistics based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter. As you can see, September is a neutral month for USDJPY (7 up, 6 down), while October tends to be bearish, with USDJPY typically moving lower (5 up, 8 down).

MONTH	AVERAGE USDJPY CHANGE	TIMES (↑↓)	USDJPY AVERAGE DAILY VOLATILITY	USDJPY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME
SEPTEMBER	-0.21%	7↑ 6↓	0.864%	317,518
OCTOBER	-0.94%	5↑ 8↓	0.862%	412,141

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🎯 Short Conclusion

USDJPY will likely experience a correction in the coming weeks, but this will create an ideal opportunity for a new uptrend toward 114.50.

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G.Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

■ Free Forex Trading Signals: USDJPY

TradingCenter (2014)