Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD Outlook January 2014
In this analysis, we will examine EURUSD using basic technical analysis and the TCI model. At the end of this article, you’ll find the key news and events related to the Euro and the US Dollar for January 2014. But first, before diving deeper into the current Forex market conditions, let’s review our previous TCI signal on gold prices.
Previous TCI Signal on Gold Price
In our last TCI trading signal, we forecasted a short-term rally in gold prices. At that time (December 21, 2013), gold was trading at $1,202.73. Today, gold is trading at $1,247.98. Gold made a smooth short-term rally, fully confirming the TCI signal. For those who want to keep their gold positions but avoid losing profits, I suggest moving the stop-loss to $1,245.60. On the optimistic side, the next price target remains $1,270.
FOREX MARKET OUTLOOK JANUARY 2014 - EUR/USD
Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3668. The euro recently recovered from five-week lows after comments by ECB President Mario Draghi. Historically, the euro tends to be weak against the US dollar in January. According to our research (2000-2013), the euro has averaged a -0.76% return versus the US dollar during January. In those 14 years, EUR/USD was bearish 8 times and bullish 6 times in January.
🔗 More » Check here TradingCenter Historical Research on EURUSD
EUR/USD Historic Chart & Technical Analysis
This is the EUR/USD historic chart (1-week). You can see key support and resistance levels along with a 50-period moving average. Below the main chart, the Williams %R indicator (14 periods) is shown.
Chart: EUR/USD Historic
TRADING CENTER INDICATOR (TCI) on EUR/USD
TCI signals for EUR/USD are nearly neutral. Today, the EUR/USD TCI stands at +0.54%, down from a recent local high of +2.40% on December 30, 2013. Most likely, EUR/USD will enter a short-term downtrend and reach a local low after about 14 trading days (around January 27, 2014). Below is the TCI table for EUR/USD with a forecast through January 30, 2014.
Table: TCI Indications on EUR/USD until January 30, 2014
|
Date |
Close |
High |
Low |
Change |
Volatility |
TCI |
|
2014.01.10 |
1.36681 |
1.36863 |
1.35732 |
0.45% |
0.83% |
0.54% |
|
Forecast: +1 Trading Day January 12th |
|
|
|
|
|
0.02% |
|
+2 Days: January 13th |
|
|
|
|
|
0.37% |
|
+3 Days: January 14th |
|
|
|
|
|
0.29% |
|
+4 Days: January 15th |
|
|
|
|
|
0.11% |
|
+5 Days: January 16th |
|
|
|
|
|
-0.26% |
|
+6 Days: January 17th |
|
|
|
|
|
0.14% |
|
+7 Days: January 19th |
|
|
|
|
|
0.53% |
|
+8 Days: January 20th (*) |
|
|
|
|
|
0.40% |
|
+9 Days: January 21st |
|
|
|
|
|
0.19% |
|
+10 Days: January 22nd |
|
|
|
|
|
-0.11% |
|
+11 Days: January 23rd |
|
|
|
|
|
-0.28% |
|
+12 Days: January 24th |
|
|
|
|
|
-0.53% |
|
+13 Days: January 26th |
|
|
|
|
|
-0.82% |
|
+14 Days: January 27th |
|
|
|
|
|
-0.87% |
|
+15 Days: January 28th |
|
|
|
|
|
-0.51% |
|
+16 Days: January 29th |
|
|
|
|
|
-0.26% |
* January 20th is Martin Luther King Day in the US, but the global Forex market remains open.
Note that TCI has not yet identified a clear trend for EUR/USD. What happens next will depend on the upcoming news. January is a busy month with many important events affecting the foreign exchange market. Below is a table listing all key news and events for the Eurozone and the US in January 2014.
Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD Outlook January 2014
■ George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst
Trading Center.org (11th, January 2014)
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