Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD May-June 2015

□ Market: Foreign Exchange

□ Asset: EURUSD

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EURUSD Outlook & Forecast

EURUSD is currently in a corrective uptrend after hitting a 12-year low of 1.0461 on March 13, 2015. Today, it trades around 1.1150, fairly close to its recent high of 1.1391. Several factors explain this rise. First, the US economy showed mild contraction in the early months of 2015. Many analysts blame the strong US Dollar for this slowdown. If that view is correct, further USD gains could threaten the positive outlook for the US economy in 2015.

Forecasting EURUSD

Here is our forecast for EURUSD:

■ Short-Term: The short-term trend favors the Euro. The main agreement between the Eurogroup and Greece is expected around May 27th or 29th, 2015. Technically, the support level at 1.1065 is crucial. If EURUSD holds this level, it will signal a strong continuation of the current uptrend.

■ Mid-Term: The mid-term outlook for EURUSD is uncertain. The recent 12-year low suggests the depreciation happened too fast, so the Euro could rebound further against the US Dollar in the coming weeks. There is a possibility that EURUSD could rise to 1.2490. The resistance level at 1.1610 will be important if reached.

■ Long-Term: The long-term trend still favors the US Dollar. In the next 6-8 months, EURUSD is likely to reach 1:1, and technical analysis suggests it could even drop to 0.86. A recent Morgan Stanley report supports this forecast.

EURUSD Technical Analysis Levels

■ Supply Levels / Resistance:

1.1391 | 1.1610 | 1.2429 (final)

■ Demand Levels / Support:

1.1065-1.1049 | 1.0755 | 1.0665 | 1.0495-1.0460

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TCI on EURUSD

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique technical analysis system developed by TradingCenter. Below are the TCI indications for EURUSD in May 2015.

{slider=TRADING CENTER INDICATOR ON EURUSD}

Table: TCI on EURUSD

Date	Close	High	Low	Volume	Change	Volatility	TCI
2015.05.08	1.12091	1.12888	1.11783	148695	-0.50%	1.0%	4.23%
2015.05.11	1.11539	MID-SESSION			-0.49%	0.7%	3.90%
(+1 Trading Days)							3.34%
(+2 Trading Days)							3.22%
(+3 Trading Days)							3.22%
(+4 Trading Days)							3.11%
(+5 Trading Days)							3.21%
(+6 Trading Days)							3.20%
(+7 Trading Days)							2.71%
(+8 Trading Days)							2.54%
(+9 Trading Days)							2.42%
(+10 Trading Days)							2.54%
(+11 Trading Days)							2.92%
(+12 Trading Days)							3.35%
(+13 Trading Days)							3.31%
(+14 Trading Days)							3.12%
(+15 Trading Days)							2.81%

TCI reached +7.92% on April 30th and +7.58% on May 6th, 2015, indicating an overbought market.

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EURUSD Statistics

Here are the monthly EURUSD statistics based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter. Statistically, May is not a strong month for the Euro against the US Dollar. In contrast, June tends to be a good month for the Euro against the US Dollar.

MONTH	AVERAGE EURUSD CHANGE	TIMES (↑↓)
MAY	-0.52%	6↑ 8↓
JUNE	+0.62%	9↑ 5↓
JULY	+0.10%	6↑ 8↓

🔗 Statistics » More EURUSD Statistics Here

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EURUSD Key Updates

These are some key events and updates about EURUSD:

(1) Eurozone growth is expected to be +0.5%, according to a recent Reuters analyst poll.

(2) The US experienced a mild economic contraction from January to March 2015, and for the first time in many years, the Eurozone is doing better than the US.

(3) Eurozone PMI numbers were close to forecasts. Germany’s final Manufacturing PMI was 52.1, France’s was 48.0, Spain’s was 54.2, and Italy’s was 53.8.

(4) German bonds have been sold off over the past week.

(5) Our sources say the main agreement between the Eurogroup and the Greek government is expected around May 27 or May 29, 2015.

(6) On Friday, May 9, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed job gains, but not enough to push for an interest rate hike in June 2015. The report showed 223,000 new jobs created in April 2015.

(7) The US unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%, matching expectations. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1%.

(8) US interest rates are still expected to rise this year, likely starting in September 2015.

 

■ Forex Trading Signals, EURUSD

George M. Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

TradingCenter (May, 11th 2015)