Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD May-June 2015
Market: Foreign Exchange
Asset: EURUSD
EURUSD Outlook
EURUSD is found on a correctional uptrend after reaching its 12-year low during March, 13th 2015 (1.0461). Today EURUSD is trading at about 1.1150 relatively close to its periodic high of 1.1391. There are many explanations for this EURUSD uptrend. First of all the US economy during the first few months of 2015 is found on a mild contraction. Many analysts argue that the strong US Dollar is to blame for this economic contraction. If this point of view is correct then a further US Dollar appreciation could jeopardize the overall positive outlook of the US economy for 2015.
Forecasting EURUSD
Here is our forecast regarding EURUSD:
■ Short-Term: The short-term trend favors the EUR. Note that the main agreement between Eurogroup and Greece is expected to take place in the 27th or the 29th of May 2015. As concerns technical analysis, the support level of 1.1065 might prove very crucial. If EURUSD proves capable of holding that level it will signal the aggressive continuation of the current uptrend.
■ Mid-Term: EURUSD mid-term course is a clear mystery. The recent 12-years low suggests that EURUSD depreciation has happened too fast and it seems that as concerns the next few weeks Euro could rebound further against the US Dollar. There is a scenario that EURUSD could move up to 1.2490. The resistance level of 1.1610 (if reached) might prove very crucial for EURUSD. Check the resistance levels below.
■ Long-Term: The long-term trend still favors the USD. Most probably in the next 6-8 month,s EURUSD will reach 1:1. According to technical analysis, we are going to see even 0.86. A recent report from Morgan Stanley is in line with our forecast.
EURUSD Technical Analysis Levels
■ Supply Levels / Resistance:
1.1391 | 1.1610 | 1.2429 (final)
■ Demand Levels / Support:
1.1065-1.1049 | 1.0755 | 1.0665 | 1.0495-1.0460
TCI on EURUSD
The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis system developed by TradingCenter. Here are the TCI Indications regarding EURUSD for May 2015.
Table: TCI on EURUSD Date Close High Low Volume Change Volatility TCI 2015.05.08 1.12091 1.12888 1.11783 148695 -0.50% 1.0% 4.23% 2015.05.11 1.11539 MID-SESSION -0.49% 0.7% 3.90% (+1 Trading Days) 3.34% (+2 Trading Days) 3.22% (+3 Trading Days) 3.22% (+4 Trading Days) 3.11% (+5 Trading Days) 3.21% (+6 Trading Days) 3.20% (+7 Trading Days) 2.71% (+8 Trading Days) 2.54% (+9 Trading Days) 2.42% (+10 Trading Days) 2.54% (+11 Trading Days) 2.92% (+12 Trading Days) 3.35% (+13 Trading Days) 3.31% (+14 Trading Days) 3.12% (+15 Trading Days) 2.81% TCI reached +7.92% and +7.58% during the 30th of April and 6th of May 2015 respectively. This highlights an overbought market.
EURUSD Statistics
Here are EURUSD monthly statistics based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter. Statistically, May is not a good month for EUR against the USD. On the contrary, June is a good month for EUR against the USD.
MONTH |
AVERAGE EURUSD CHANGE |
TIMES (↑↓) |
MAY |
-0.52% |
6↑ 8↓ |
JUNE |
+0.62% |
9↑ 5↓ |
JULY |
+0.10% |
6↑ 8↓ |
EURUSD Key Updates
These are some important events and updates regarding EURUSD:
(1) Eurozone growth is forecasted at +0.5% based on a recent Reuters analyst’s poll.
(2) The US suffered a mild economic contraction during the period January-March 2015 and for the first time in many years, Eurozone is performing better than the US.
(3) Eurozone PMI readings were close to forecasts. German Final Manufacturing PMI at 52.1. French Final Manufacturing PMI at 48.0. Spanish Manufacturing PMI at 54.2. Italian Manufacturing PMI at 53.8.
(4) There has been a sell-off in the German Bonds during the past week.
(5) According to our sources, the main agreement between the Eurogroup and the Greek government should be expected in the 27th or the 29th of May 2015.
(6) On Friday (May, 9th) the US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed gains, but not enough gains to trigger an interest rate hike in June 2015. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the creation of 223,000 new jobs in April 2015.
(7) The US unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in line with expectations. The average US hourly earnings increased by 0.1%.
(8) The US rates remain on course to be raised this year, most probably starting in September 2015.
■ Forex Trading Signals, EURUSD
George M. Protonotarios, Financial Analyst
TradingCenter (May, 11th 2015)
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