EURUSD and USDX November 2015

□ Market: Foreign Exchange

□ Assets: EURUSD and the US Dollar Index

□ TCI Forecast: EURUSD to form a new Short-Term Uptrend (↑) bringing it from 1.095 to 1.1350, up to 1.1500

EURUSD Trading Signal Outlook

EURUSD has been under selling pressure for the past couple of weeks. This selling pressure is not fully justified by new fundamental data, and it seems to be rather a technical-driven selling pressure. If we take a look at the broader picture (Check EURUSD Chart), we are going to see that EURUSD is ranging between 1.080 and 1.149, for quite some time now. This time EURUSD is found at the lowest boundary of this range (periodic low 1.0896). In addition, TCI suggests also that EURUSD has reached oversold levels, and it is close to a turnaround (Check below TCI table).

CBOE futures (non-commercial positions) indicate that professional traders have increased their EURUSD long positions and have reduced their short EURUSD positions. Note that during October, CBOE futures showed professional traders to be short on EURUSD. Therefore, CBOE futures now show signs of EURUSD turnaround. Furthermore, statistically, November and December are good months to be Long on EUR. In overall, if we assume that news will be neutral during November 2015, EURUSD is expected to enter a short-term uptrend that will bring it to 1.1350 and up to 1.1500.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Here are some important EURUSD Support and Resistance Levels:

■ ST Supply Levels: 1.1050-1.1070 | 1.1100 | 1.1140 | 1.1340 | 1.1385 | 1.1430-1.1500

■ ST Demand Levels: 1.0890-1.0895 | 1.079-1.081

Lower EURUSD levels than 1.079 should be stopped (Stop-Loss entry). Wait until the new EURUSD uptrend is confirmed before you trade more aggressively.

Chart: EURUSD

Chart: USD-X

TCI on EURUSD

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis Indicator developed by TradingCenter. Here are TCI Indications regarding EURUSD (Slider).

Here are TCI Indications regarding the US Dollar Index (USDX)

EURUSD Statistics

November and especially December are good months to be long on EURUSD. Actually December is the best month of the year to be long on EURUSD. Here are the Monthly Statistics for EURUSD

MONTH	AVERAGE CHANGE	TIMES (↑/↓)	AVERAGE DAILY VOLATILITY
NOVEMBER	0.49%	7↑ 6↓	0.909%
DECEMBER	1.95%	8↑ 5↓	0.817%

 

Trading Strategy and Set-up

EURUSD seems to have entered oversold levels on its mid-term range. We expect EURUSD to move higher, starting in the first week of November 2015. TCI suggests the opening of long EURUSD positions after the 4th of November 2015. Be careful with your entries, because EURUSD will face high volatility before forming the new uptrend. The best strategy is to open small long positions by keeping the stop-loss to 1.0789. After the new uptrend is confirmed you may start trading heavier and move your stop-loss higher. The first target is set at 1.1350 and the final take-profit at 1.1450-1.1490.

 

■ Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD and USDX

Giorgos Protonotarios, Financial Analyst

November, 3rd 2015 (middle session)

for TradingCenter