TCI Trading Signals and the NASDAQ Composite Analysis for May 2014

“Cash will be king again; it always is king in the end.”

This TCI analysis focuses on the Nasdaq Composite Index. We will examine the Nasdaq Composite and forecast its path for the coming years. But first, let’s review our previous TCI signal on GBPUSD.

Previous TCI Forex Trading Signal

In our last trading signal published on April 28th, we forecasted an uptrend for the British Pound against the US Dollar using the TCI model.

“TCI is a technical analysis model developed entirely in-house by TradingCenter.org.”

At that time, GBPUSD was trading at 1.6845. Our target price was 1.7000, with May 6th set as the selling target date. After May 6th, we predicted a correction, as shown in the original report and the TCI table. GBPUSD actually reached 1.6956 on May 6th, 2014. After that, a strong correction began, as forecasted, pushing GBPUSD down to 1.6730 on May 14th. Now, GBPUSD trades around 1.6820. Although the 1.7000 level was nearly reached, the GBPUSD TCI signal was confirmed.

TCI Indications on Nasdaq Composite for May 2014

As mentioned before, the real strength of TCI is its ability to predict timing. Using the TCI-Short Model (TCI v1.2), we forecast the Nasdaq Composite’s movement for May 2014. TCI points to a short-term bullish trend ending on May 27th, 2014.

■ Selling Target: 27th of May 2014

Read more: NASDAQ Composite Index May 2014

NASDAQ HISTORICAL PATTERNS & FORECAST USING TCI DATA

Nasdaq: Analyzing the Bull Markets Using TCI

Nasdaq is one of the world’s most popular and active stock markets. In this analysis, we will examine the Nasdaq Composite Index since 1971 using TCI analysis. We will focus on the three bull markets of the past 20 years. Our goal is to estimate how long the current Nasdaq bull market, which began in 2009, will last. 🔗 More: » Trading Center Indicator (TCI)

Nasdaq & TCI Charts (1971-2013)

The following multi-chart consists of three individual charts:

1) Line Chart on Nasdaq Closings since 1971 (1st in a row chart)

2) TCI Long Chart since 1971 (2nd in a row)

3) TCI Short Chart since 1971 (3rd in a row)

The Nasdaq line chart below covers the period from 1971 to 2013. The TCI charts help us better understand Nasdaq’s historic returns.

Here are some key conclusions drawn from the two TCI charts:

□ TCI LONG:

Read more: Nasdaq Trading Signal April 2013

TRADING CENTER INDICATOR (TCI): TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed on Friday, November 16th, at 12,588.31 points. The downtrend that started one month ago is continuing. In mid-October 2012, Dow was around 13,661 points, so it has dropped more than 1,000 points since then. To estimate how long this downtrend may last, we applied the TCI Indicator to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and here are the results.

TCI on Dow at a Glance:

• Dow Price: 12,588.31
• Short-Term Trend: ↓
• Mid-Term Trend: Possible Rebound, ↑
• Possible Turnaround Dates: November 20 / November 30

TCI Indicator on Dow Jones

The table below shows recent daily data for the Dow Industrial, with the last column displaying the daily TCI indicator value. It’s clear that the Dow is trading inside a strong downtrend channel. The current TCI reading is about -11.02 (based on the Dow closing at 12,588 points). Historically, this TCI level has offered traders good returns of 5–10%.

Read more: TCI Trading Signal on Dow Jones November 2012

After a period of absence, trading signals using the TCI technical analysis system have returned to Trading Center. The current TCI signal focuses on the Dow Jones Industrial and suggests the possible start of a mini bear market.

Here is the signal:

📈 TCI Chart on Dow Industrial since 2002

🔗 More: » The Dow Jones Industrial Average

As we have mentioned in previous signals, one of the greatest advantages of TCI analysis is its ability to visualize results clearly. In the following TCI chart, covering February 1, 2002, to February 13, 2013, the +10% level often signals mini bear market corrections of around 10%. Below the TCI chart, you will find a line chart of the Dow Jones Industrial closing prices for the same period.

Read more: TCI on Dow Jones February 2013

Nasdaq on the Move: Spotlight on Google

Nasdaq is gaining momentum, and Google is one of its most notable listings. Google is the global leader in online advertising and one of the most innovative large companies worldwide. Google’s current P/E ratio of 25.6 is reasonable, given the high expected annual earnings growth over the next five years (about 12% on average). Google’s share price is following a steady long-term upward trend, which we will review below. First, let’s look at our previous signal on GBP/USD.

Our Previous Signal on GBP/USD

Google {GOOG} at a glance

Here are Google’s Key Figures

Google Share Price Trend

Google’s main trend is clearly bullish and strong. Before this rally ends, its price could reach $900 or even $1,000. With a beta of 0.97, Google’s share price moves closely in line with the Nasdaq Index. This means we should expect price swings based on the overall market trend, which is also currently strong and bullish.

Chart: Google’s Closing Prices (2004–2013) and TCI Long

Read more: Signal on Google May 2013

🏛️ Greek Stock Market Plunged 90% to 475 Points — Now It’s Booming and Heading Much Higher

Recently, the Greek Stock Market Has Entered a Booming Phase—But Why?

Greek Economy at a Glance:

The Greek economy has been in a deep recession for five consecutive years. GDP declined by 6.9% in 2011 and is expected to contract by around 5% in 2012. Additionally, unemployment is projected to reach 25% in 2012. The economy is expected to return to growth in late 2013, according to recent statements by Prime Minister Mr. Samaras.

ASE Stock Market Index Today at 752 Points

The Greek Stock Market Index (ASE – Athens Stock Exchange) closed at 752.2 points on September 25th. This marks an increase of approximately 58%—or 277 points—above its June 2012 low of 475, as shown in the chart below.

Why Is the Greek Stock Market Rebounding?

Over the past two years, the Greek Stock Market has been extremely bearish, losing around 90% of its value. The current rebound is considered a normal market reaction. Even now, Greek stocks appear to be undervalued. With the ASE at 750 points, the total market capitalization stands at approximately 29 billion euros, compared to a national GDP of around 190 billion euros. That results in:

∟ ASE Capitalization / GDP = 15% (a notably low ratio, even given Greece’s economic challenges)

Read more: Greek Stock Market Slumped 90% to 475 points