Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD October-November 2017

■ Market: Foreign Exchange

■ Asset: EURUSD

It seems that the last quarter of 2017 is signaling a new macroeconomic era for the currencies of developed countries. This new era includes a significant monetary shifting towards the beginning of a global economic 'tapering'. First, let us evaluate our previous Forex Trading signal.

Evaluating Our Previous Trading Signal

In our previous trading signal (August 2017), we have forecasted a bearish US Dollar market, more specifically: “The USDX trend is clearly bearish. The key support area for USDX is NOT close. Currently, USD-X trades at 95.48, and the support zone commences at 90.80 (S1)”. Actually, the US Dollar Index slumped from 95.48 to below 91.00 very rapidly, founding support at about 90.95 points. The previous trading signal was confirmed.

EURUSD Outlook -Politics Run the Show, the Economy Plays Second Fiddle

Recently the Euro managed to climb to 1.209, which is its highest level since early 2015. After the German Elections and the unexpected rise of the extreme right, the Euro lost some of its gains. A Deutsche Bank Asset Management team argues that politics move currencies nowadays, not the economy, nor the interest rate differential. One thing is for sure, the currencies of developed countries are more sensitive to politics than ever.

Currently, the EURUSD pair is trading in a bearish trend that it will lead it probably at 1.148-1.144 (S1), but be aware that the last month of each year is a traditionally a bullish month for the EURUSD. Therefore, we expect the continuation of the bearish trend for a couple of weeks, and after, a strong reversal. Probably that will happen in late November.

EURUSD Technical Analysis and TCI Chart

The following EURUSD chart (D1) includes a TCI chart for the same period (October 2015 - October 2017). The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a Technical Indicator developed by TradingCenter. ► More About TCI

Read more: EURUSD October-November 2017

Free Forex Trading Signals: The US Dollar Index (USDX) December 2016

■ Market: Foreign Exchange

■ Asset: US Dollar Index (USDX)

Forex Market Outlook

The global markets are still feeling the vibrations of Trump’s victory. The Fx market volatility of the past couple of weeks has been enormous. The US Dollar grew stronger and the USDX (US Dollar index) reached a 13.5 year high. A great USD movement took place against the Japanese Yen (USDJPY). Probably, the Bank of Japan is preparing a long-term devalued Yen in order to fight back the new Trump’s foreign trade policies. The Euro is also in trouble, towards the rise of the ‘right-wing extremism’ in all around the world. In this dynamic environment, FED is expected to raise the US rates while ECB is not clear about how much it will extend its massive asset purchases program (QE), which ends in March 2017.

TradingCenter's TCI on USDX

During the past couple of weeks, the US Dollar Index (USDX) has grown considerably, as you can see in the following chart. In the lower chart, you can see the TCI for the same period. TCI indicates that the USDX can grow furthermore, after a short-term price consolidation. Below you can check the TCI reading for the past 15 trading days and its forecast regarding the upcoming 15 trading days.

Chart: USDX 2012-2016 (upper chart) TCI (lower chart)

Read more: USDX Trading Signal December 2016

Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD, USD-X July-August 2017

After, the hawkish speech from President Draghi in late June, Forex investors have turned bullish on the Euro. Draghi said that no further Euro rate cuts would be required, signaling a potential change in ECB’s monetary policy. As a result, the euro has seen strong gains against all the majors (USD, CHF, JPY, and GBP). Nevertheless, at this moment, EURUSD has entered an accumulation phase that is expected to last until early August 2017.

■ Market: Foreign Exchange

■ Assets: EURUSD | USD-X

Macroeconomic Outlook

In June, FED has raised the target range of the federal funds' rate to a range of 1.00% to 1.25%, the third consecutive quarterly increase. This is the higher level of US funds rates since the financial crisis of 2008. This move corresponds to a record US jobs growth and to the lowest level of unemployment rate in 16 years. The Fed also made a statement about reducing its enormous bond portfolio. After three rounds of quantitative easing, the Fed holds $4.5 trillion of bonds (including $1.8 trillion of mortgage securities). Meanwhile, EURUSD moved higher as President Draghi gave a signal for a monetary policy change and the potential for a stronger Euro.

Trading Rebates: » Forex Trading Rebates via Forex-Rebates.com

US Dollar Index (USD-X) Chart and Technical Analysis

This is the weekly chart of the US Dollar Index (Futures Contract). As you can see in the chart, the USDX trend is clearly bearish. The key support area for USDX is NOT close. Currently, USD-X trades at 95.48, and the support zone commences at 90.80 (S1) and expands to 86.90 (S2). Note that the point S2 is based on the A2 trend line, which provides general support. As concerns resistance, strong supply is expected at 100.5 (R1), and especially at 104.80-105.00 (R2). The point R2 is based on the A1 trend line, which provides general resistance.

Chart: US Dollar Index (Futures Contract -Weekly)

US Dollar Index (USD-X) Support and Resistance Levels

USDX currently trades at 95.48, and these are some key support and resistance levels.

□ Demand (Support) Level: 90.90-90.80 (S1) | 89.50 | 88.30 | 87.30-86.90 (S2)

□ Supply (Resistance) Level: 98.50-98.70 | 99.70 | 100.5 (R1) | 104.80-105.00 (R2)

EURUSD Chart and Technical Analysis

The trend is bullish for EURUSD. Currently, EURUSD trades at 1.1385.

Chart: EURUSD (H4)

These are some key support and resistance levels for EURUSD:

□ Demand (Support) Level: 1.1280-1.1290 | 1.1240 | 1.1115-1.1125 | 1.0955-1.0975 | 1.082-1.0840 | 1.0730-1.0735

□ Supply (Resistance) Level: 1.1550 | 1.1600-1.1610 | 1.17050 | 1.1825-1.1830 | 1.2005-1.2010

TradingCenter Indicator (TCI) on EURUSD

After a strong move during the past weeks, TCI indicates that EURUSD has entered an accumulation phase. According to TCI, this phase will probably complete in eleven (11) trading days (TCI=+0.75%). That means in late July or in early August. Here are the full TCI readings regarding EURUSD.

Click on the following slider to reveal the full TCI readings regarding EURUSD.

EURUSD Statistics

These are the Statistics for EURUSD based on 13.5 years of research by TradingCenter.

■ Forex Trading Signals: USDX July-August 2017

George Protonotarios, Financial Analyst » George at Linkedin

TradingCenter, July, 13th 2017

Trading the Global Financial Markets in the Last Quarter of 2016

• ■ Forex Markets: EURUSD to continue ranging, GBP to face further selling pressure, AUD uptrend possible continuation
• ■ Equity Markets: We should expect the outcome of the American Elections, the odds are in favor of the sellers
• ■ Energy Markets: Production cut (1 million BPD) is expected in late November, if there is confirmation by Iran and Saudi Arabia, crude is heading for $60 / barrel

Increased Volatility Towards the American Elections of November

During the past couple of weeks, the global financial markets have been pretty volatile. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May set a date in March 2017 to begin exiting the EU and that pushed the British Sterling even lower against the Euro and the US Dollar. The EURUSD, as we have stated many months ago, is expected to continue ranging, at least until the American Elections. ECB and FED see the EURUSD exchange rate as the stabilizing factor in our current unstable financial world.

Equities are still trading close to all-time record highs. We should wait and see what happens after the American Elections in Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The oil markets are moving up after a historic agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC countries for cutting oil production by nearly 1 million BPD, in late November.

Foreign Exchange Markets

The British pound slumped furthermore after the UK Prime Minister Theresa May set a date in March to begin exiting the EU. That will happen “no later than the end of March” setting the UK up to leave the EU by 2019. The British Sterling reached a post-Brexit low against the euro. UK chancellor Philip Hammond said that we should expect Brexit-induced turbulence in the UK economy. He said also that the Foreign Exchange market is inclining towards believing the pound has further to fall.

During September, Jean-Claude Juncker announced that the EU will double the duration and the financial capacity of the European Fund for Strategic Investments. He said: “we will ensure that the European Investment Fund will provide at least EUR 500 billion by 2020. We will do even more to reach 630 billion by 2022”.

Read more: Forex Trading Signals in late 2016