Forex Trading Signals using Trading Center's Technical Analysis System (TCI)

EURUSD -The Euro against the US Dollar

Currently, EURUSD is trading at 1.34874, correcting from its recent high of 1.38314 (25th of October 2013). In two recent Forex Signal articles we have mentioned that EURUSD is expected to form a new mid-term high in late October, and using TCI we have indicated as a possible date, the 23rd of October 2013. Actually, EURUSD formed a new high, but two days later (in the 25th of October). Not a very bad forecast given that it is was made on the 13th of October. 

Using Price Action and TCI we are going to investigate what happens next regarding EURUSD and AUDUSD.

EURUSD Price Action

The current EURUSD price action is clearly bearish in both H1, H4 charts while there is a confirmation on the D1 chart. But it seems that the long-run charts W1 and M1 are still in a bullish channel that it is just correcting.

Note that statistically November and December are good months for EURUSD. Using historical daily data since 2000, here are some facts about EURUSD monthly returns:

■ November 2013: +4.93% on average (7 times Bullish ↑ and 6 times Bearish ↓)

■ December 2013: +20.7% on average (8 times Bullish ↑ and 5 times Bearish ↓)

Of course, that is just what statistics suggest and we should not jump to easy conclusions. Here is the TCI data table starting in the 18th of October and including the forecast for the upcoming weeks.

Read more: Free Forex Trading Signals November 2013

This EURUSD technical analysis report is made using a 4-Hour chart and a 1-Day chart on MT4 combined with the results of the Trading Center’s Indicator (TCI results).

EURUSD Price Action and Short-Term Trend

Conclusions deriving from the analysis of EURUSD price action:

The H4 EURUSD chart indicates a downtrend while the D1 chart does not confirm it. In other words, there is no clear short-term trend. If EURUSD moves above 1.358 then the short-trend could be turned bullish for a while. From the other hand, if EURUSD moves clearly below 1.345 then the trend could be considered as strongly bearish.

■ Currently: 1.3541

■ Short-Term Bullish Trigger: 1.358

■ Strong Bearish Trigger: 1.345

EURUSD Chart February 2013-October 2013.

Read more: TCI on EURUSD October 2013

The Australian Dollar is on the Move

Recently, the Australian Dollar has moved strongly against the other majors. By using MT4 technical analysis and the Trading Center Indicator (TCI) we are going to investigate if that trend is going to last or we are reaching the point of completion and should be expecting a reversal. But first, let's evaluate our previous Forex analysis on EURUSD.

Evaluation of the previous Forex Signal on EURUSD

In the 11th of October, we published an analysis on EURUSD. By that time there was no clear trend but we have mentioned that the most probable scenario is a new regional high ahead “the most probable scenario is that EURUSD will try ones more to form a new high (+8 trading days), and after that, a trend reversal (↓) is very probable to occur”. 

In this previous article we have also indicated two major EURUSD levels:

■ Bullish Trigger: 1.358

■ Bearish Trigger: 1.345

■ EURUSD at that time: 1.3541

The EURUSD bullish trigger level 1.358 was reached and after we have witnessed a very strong uptrend to 1.3703. Now if we take a look to the TCI indications table on the same article we are going to see that TCI forecasted a regional high +8 trading days ahead. That means 8 trading days after the 11th of October or else Wednesday, the 23rd of October. That date is closing, so we are soon going to evaluate the accuracy of this TCI indication made on the 11th of October.

Read more: The Australian Dollar is on the Move 2013

In this analysis, we are going to investigate the upcoming course of EURUSD by presenting and analyze TCI technical results for the upcoming weeks. Furthermore, all the important upcoming news are presented in individual tables regarding EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, and NZD. In overall it seems that EURUSD has entered an overbought area but the time of the downtrend reversal cannot be identified yet. Before we continue here is a glance at our previous report for EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY, here are some details.

In our Previous Report we have stated that the US Dollar is expected to be strong in the long-run, but also we said that the major USD crosses (EUR, GBP, and JPY) will have to correct as they had already reached oversold levels. These corrections were expected to occur after some weeks, Actually, they happened much faster due to the speech of FED’s chairman. Of course by that time EURUSD has reached the strong support of 1.2750 as we can see at the following chart. The Long-term forecast remains the same and we expect the US Dollar to become stronger in the future, especially as concerns EURUSD.

EURUSD -What Should We Expect Next

The most possible scenario is that after a downtrend correction of a couple of days, the EURUSD will try to reach a new high. Either it will be able to form a new high -Either not the EURUSD may be seen as overbought. But of course, this is just the natural course of technical analysis. Important news regarding the EURO and the US Dollar may alter this technical picture. All the important upcoming news regarding EURUSD are presented at the end of this report. Here is an MT4 chart for EURUSD (plus RSI and Moving Average 50 days).

Read more: EURUSD July 2013