Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD May-June 2015

Market: Foreign Exchange

Asset: EURUSD

EURUSD Outlook

EURUSD is found on a correctional uptrend after reaching its 12-year low during March, 13th 2015 (1.0461). Today EURUSD is trading at about 1.1150 relatively close to its periodic high of 1.1391. There are many explanations for this EURUSD uptrend. First of all the US economy during the first few months of 2015 is found on a mild contraction. Many analysts argue that the strong US Dollar is to blame for this economic contraction. If this point of view is correct then a further US Dollar appreciation could jeopardize the overall positive outlook of the US economy for 2015.

Forecasting EURUSD

Here is our forecast regarding EURUSD:

■ Short-Term: The short-term trend favors the EUR. Note that the main agreement between Eurogroup and Greece is expected to take place in the 27th or the 29th of May 2015. As concerns technical analysis, the support level of 1.1065 might prove very crucial. If EURUSD proves capable of holding that level it will signal the aggressive continuation of the current uptrend.

■ Mid-Term: EURUSD mid-term course is a clear mystery. The recent 12-years low suggests that EURUSD depreciation has happened too fast and it seems that as concerns the next few weeks Euro could rebound further against the US Dollar. There is a scenario that EURUSD could move up to 1.2490. The resistance level of 1.1610 (if reached) might prove very crucial for EURUSD. Check the resistance levels below.

■ Long-Term: The long-term trend still favors the USD. Most probably in the next 6-8 month,s EURUSD will reach 1:1. According to technical analysis, we are going to see even 0.86. A recent report from Morgan Stanley is in line with our forecast.

Read more: EURUSD Trading Signal May-June 2015

Forex Trading Signals: February 2015

"If you trade EUR against the USD in 2015 don’t expect something more than Bear Market Rallies"

Market: Foreign Exchange

Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

Forex Market Outlook for 2015

Lately, the Euro managed to gain some ground against the US Dollar. During the 26th of January 2015, EURUSD moved below 1.11 (intraday low 1.10965) -Now it is trading above 1.13 supported by the manufacturing production in Eurozone which rose at the fastest pace of the past 6 months. This short reaction may lead EURUSD a little bit higher (maybe 1.15) but it seems that it is a pure technical reaction. Most probably 2015 will be the year of the US Dollar. FED is the only major monetary authority that has no problems seeing its currency moving higher against other majors. Furthermore, between the 5 majors (USD, EUR, CHF, JPY, and GBP) only the US Dollar can offer higher interest rates in 2015. Eurozone suffers from deflation and slow growth and loosening its monetary policy is the only way to go. The same is valid for Japan and as Haruhiko Kuroda of BoJ said recently the weakening of the Yen is not hurting Japan’s economy. In this volatile environment, EURUSD is expected to start a new downtrend in the following weeks. From the other hand, the UK economy is in a better position than the euro area and that is likely to reverberate in the EURGBP exchange rate during the following months. In overall for 2015, we should expect USD to be the best performer against the Euro, the British Sterling and the Japanese Yen and the European Currency to be the worst performer against the US Dollar, the British Sterling, and the Japanese Yen.

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Our Previous Trading Signal

{slider= Previous Forex Trading Signal}

In our previous trading signal, we have referred to EURUSD and GBPUSD and forecasted a short-term correction before the downtrend starts again. Actually only GBPUSD managed to achieve a descent reaction. As concerns GBPUSD, we have mentioned the 8th of January as the most probable turnaround date. GBPUSD indeed started a bullish correction during the 8th of January 2015 that brought 1.5270 a few days later. As we said before, bear market rallies are all we can expect if we trade against the USD in 2015.

► Here is the Full Trading Signal

Read more: Forex Trading Signals February 2015

TCI Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD March-April 2015

“Never Trade against a Major Central Bank”

□ Market: Foreign Exchange

□ Asset: EURUSD

□ Forecast: EURUSD downtrend continuation (↓) after a short-term uptrend correction

EURUSD Outlook

If there is one constant rule when trading Forex, this rule is “Never trade against the will of a Major Central Bank”. Major Central Banks such as the FED, ECB, SNB, and BoJ are holding a lot of cards under the table and are always willing to manipulate their currencies according to their long-term monetary strategy. In this current Forex Market, the only major central bank that does not have a problem seeing its currency moving higher is the FED. ECB and BoJ are both focusing on flexible monetary policies in a last attempt to see their economies grow again. On the other hand, the US economy is growing, US unemployment is shrinking and a hard-currency policy is on the way as the US rates are expected to start rising in the second half of 2015. In such a dynamic environment the US Dollar is expected to move even higher against the Euro and the Japanese Yen in the next few months. We shall probably see EURUSD trading at 1:1 in the next couple of months.

But as the Euro against the USD is trading near the 12-year low and as USD has gained about 10% against the EUR in only one month we shall examine if this is the time for a temporary Euro correction against the USD. According to TCI, the EURUSD is an oversold market as TCI reading reached again -11% as in the case of our previous EURUSD trading signal in February 2015. By the time of this analysis, EURUSD is trading at 1.0560. Given the neutral news, EURUSD can move to 1.0650 and even at 1.0750.

Evaluating Our Previous Trading Signal

Read more: EURUSD March-April 2015

Forex Market Outlook & Trading Signals for January-February 2015

Market: Foreign Exchange

Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

The US Dollar against a basket of major currencies ended 2014 with record gains of more than 12%. Actually, this was the best USD performance of the past 10 years. In this analysis, we are going to investigate what happens next in the Foreign Exchange market as 2015 starts, regarding EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD.

The Previous TCI Signal

During November 2014 we have pointed that December is traditionally the best month to buy the Euro against the US Dollar. But, it seems that the long-term strength of the USD proved more important than any statistics and this forecast hasn’t proved right -Giving an end to an extended row of successful Forex signals during 2014.

Foreign Exchange Market Outlook

Euro continues to be under high pressure due to political, economic and psychological factors. As the European Central Bank is expected to ease aggressively monetary policy in 2015, many hedge fund managers forecast EURUSD to 1:1 in the following 12 months. Mario Draghi, the ECB President recently said that ECB is making preparations to alter the extent of its measures in early 2015. From the other hand, the demand for US dollar remains strong due to high US growth rates but also due to expectations for higher interest rates, starting in the third quarter of 2015.

TCI on EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis Indicator developed by TradingCenter.

Here are the TCI Indications regarding EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY.

◙ EURUSD TCI Indications

TCI reading for EURUSD is currently found at TCI = -6.75%. This shows an oversold market and most probably we should expect a normal correction before the US Dollar becomes very aggressive again. In any case, don’t forget that this is the year of the US Dollar, therefore, be very careful and give extra weight to upcoming fundamental updates before trading against the USD.

Read more: Forex Trading Signals January-February 2015