Forex Trading Signals using TCI Technical Analysis

We are evaluating the current trend of popular Forex pairs while we are providing Forex trading signals on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, EUR/NZD and USD/CHF. The technical analysis that follows is based on our model called TCI. The TCI analysis, as always, is focused on a short-term horizon but not on an intraday horizon. Read more about ►TCI and ►TCI+. Our Forex Trading Signals are suitable for traders that keep their positions for a couple of days to a couple of weeks, and not for intraday traders. Before presenting our current Forex trading signals we are going to investigate the previous trading signal/report on Google’s share.

Previous Signal / Report on Google

» Google {GOOG} Technical & Fundamental Report -May 2013

TCI Forex Trading Signals (Mid-Term Forecast)

Here are some other TCI Forecasts on popular Forex Pairs:

1) EUR/USD ↑ (Uptrend after May 28, 2013) –Currently 1.2850

The EUR/USD pair seems to complete a bearish short-term movement and to enter a correctional phase which will offer an upcoming uptrend reaction. The uptrend reaction is not expected to be particularly intense unless it will be followed and supported by new macroeconomic data. More analysis, charts, and data regarding EURUSD are presented below.

Read more: Free Trading Signals: EURUSD May 2013

Previous EUR/USD Signal Confirmation

The previous TCI signal has proved considerably accurate. On our previous TCI analysis on EUR/USD we have warned you of an upcoming US Dollar appreciation against Euro. By that time EUR/USD was at 1.3089 (2/25/2013). We targeted the area of 1.2910-1.2920. We also suggested that after EUR/USD reaches that particular area a strong turnaround is expected to happen.

◘ The Previous TCI Signal Details: -EUR/USD (2/25/13): 1.3089 -Target Price: 1.2910-1.2920 {»What is Trading Center Indicator?}

The New TCI Signal on EUR/USD & TCI Charting

Here is EUR/USD historical Line chart (since 1999) and the corresponding TCI chart during the same period. TCI today is about -8.0%, which is a sign of oversold levels.

Chart: EUR/USD Historic Line Chart & TCI Chart (January 1999 – March 2013)

Read more: EURUSD MARCH 2013

Free TCI Forex Signals: GBP/USD

We are going to investigate the Forex pair GBP/USD which is currently trading in an uptrend channel. What is interesting about GBP/USD is not the uptrend itself. What is interesting is the probability that GBP/USD will provide high fluctuations, within or outside this channel.

TCI Signal on GBP/USD & TCI Chart

First, let’s evaluate the results of our previous TCI signal on the price of gold.

Evaluating the Previous TCI Signal on Gold

In our previous TCI signal, we had forecasted a bull market rally in the price of Gold. We defined two major target prices (1,419 and 1,459 per ounce). Until today, the 28th of April, both targets were met. Gold moved smoothly upwards with straight corrections to major resistance levels. Probably every bullish day-trader did enjoy it. The best thing is to trade a market technically oversold and fundamental stable, and that is what happened to gold.

» Here is our latest TCI signal -On the price of gold

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The following chart refers to the GBP/USD Forex pair, for the period starting in the 31 of May 2010 and ending in the 26th of May 2013. In the lower level of the chart there is a TCI chart on GBP/USD during the same period.

MT4 Chart Explanation

Since January 2013 the GBP/USD has entered an upward trend that forms the channel A//B in the chart. The points indicated as (1), (2), (3) are some important resistance levels discussed below. Finally, in the upper MT4 chart we have included a Fibonacci Retracement.

Simple TCI Indicator Chart analysis

If we take a look at TCI indications at the lower part of the chart, during the same period (31 May 2010until26 May 2013), we can conclude that most of the times TCI peaked above +5.0%. In that sense, the overbought levels of TCI are above +5.0%. Today TCI on GBP/USD is about 3.1% as you can see in the above chart and also at the TCI data table presented at the end of this free signal. Given TCI indications we could conclude that GBP/USD is not yet overbought. That means that we could see an expansion of the upward TCI trend of about 2.0%. Therefore and according to TCI analysis GBP/USD may move to 1.5780-15810.

Resistance / Support and Periodic Peaks

GBP/USD at 1.5432 today is continuing an uptrend movement, but we shouldn’t expect that this movement will go one-way. There is a clear channel which is formed between the two Trendlines (A, B) and probably GBP/USD is expected to remain within that channel.

Crucial dates that we could see peaks and after corrections are:

a) +2days or the 30th of April 2013

b) +8days or the 8th of May 2013

c) +11days or the 13th of May 2013

Three Scenarios for GBP/USD

1) If GBP/USD remains in the pre-mentioned channel A//B, then we should expect a soft upward trend with intraday corrections. (BASIC SCENARIO)

3) If GBP/USD brakes the channel A//B Upwards, then a very fast move will bring GBP/USD even to 1.6300.

4) If GBP/USD brakes the channel A//B Downwards, then it should probably try the previous low (1.5215).

Our Trading Tip: The upper and the lower points in the A//B formation will provide the perfect stop-loss points for short-term traders.

GBP/USD from a Fundamental Point of View -British Economy Vs US Economy

Here is a comparison between the two economies (British and the US)

The British and US economies are traditionally moving into a similar economic cycle. Great Britain economic cycle is closer to the US economic cycle than to the Eurozone economic cycle. In terms of GDP change, the US economy is stronger (growth 1.8%) but of course given the fact that the US has imposed a much more expansive monetary policy in the US economy after 2008 than Great Britain did. Despite the higher money measures and the lower interest rates (0.25%), inflation is lower in the US (2.0%) and that means that FED is doing a nice job. The unemployment rate is almost the same in both economies (7.9% in the UK and 7.7% in the US). As concerns government debt per GDP, the British economy is currently in a better position (90.7% per GDP) while the deficits in government budget of both countries are almost the same (-6.3% and -7.0%).

TCI DATA TABLE

Here are the Market Data of GBP/USD since the 26^th of April 2013. In the last column, you can see TCI data which after the 26^th of April become a forecast.

Short Conclusion:

GBP/USD for the time is strong and it is possible to move to 1.5800 during the following weeks, but we should be extremely cautious if we decide to trade it intraday. The basic scenario suggests that we should expect intraday corrections while this uptrend will go on.

□ Giorgos Protonotarios,

for Trading Center (April 28, 2013)

Free TCI Forex Signals: GBP/USD April 2013

The summer hasn’t started yet as concerns new Forex market developments and currency fluctuations. There is this filling in the air that something is about to change in the global monetary “Status Quo” during the next 3-4 months. FED is changing the rules of the game and preparing world markets for a new monetary policy. In our last Forex Report (two weeks ago) we have forecasted that the good days for Euro against the US Dollar are about to end.

EURUSD at that time was traded at 1.3120 while today it is traded at about 1.2830. The mid-trend of EURUSD is clearly bearish but as concerns, the short-term things become much more complicated (Check the TCI analysis at the end of this Report).

Here is what happens next.

A Short Analysis about What is Coming

After its recent announcements, FED is obviously preparing the global market for higherUSrates. The unemployment figures are improving so FED’s main concern is moving towards dealing with the upcoming inflation. That mathematically leads to higher interest rates after the end of summer 2013. higher interest rates (currently at 0.25%) will make US Bonds and the US Dollar more attractive to domestic and foreign investors. That will lead to a stronger US Dollar, and especially as concerns the EURUSD. A stronger US Dollar means also the devaluation of all commodity prices that are valued in US Dollars. This is happening because as USD is appreciating these commodities must devaluate in order to maintain the real value and not to disturb the balance between real demand and supply. This mechanism explains why the Gold Price has crushed during the past couple of weeks when USD became stronger.

■ US Interest Rates (↑) → USD (↑) → Commodity Prices (↓)

Read more: Free Forex Trading Signals EURUSD JULY 2013