EURUSD and USDX November 2015

□ Market: Foreign Exchange

□ Assets: EURUSD and the US Dollar Index

□ TCI Forecast: EURUSD to form a new Short-Term Uptrend (↑) bringing it from 1.095 to 1.1350, up to 1.1500

EURUSD Trading Signal Outlook

EURUSD has been under selling pressure for the past couple of weeks. This selling pressure is not fully justified by new fundamental data, and it seems to be rather a technical-driven selling pressure. If we take a look at the broader picture (Check EURUSD Chart), we are going to see that EURUSD is ranging between 1.080 and 1.149, for quite some time now. This time EURUSD is found at the lowest boundary of this range (periodic low 1.0896). In addition, TCI suggests also that EURUSD has reached oversold levels, and it is close to a turnaround (Check below TCI table).

CBOE futures (non-commercial positions) indicate that professional traders have increased their EURUSD long positions and have reduced their short EURUSD positions. Note that during October, CBOE futures showed professional traders to be short on EURUSD. Therefore, CBOE futures now show signs of EURUSD turnaround. Furthermore, statistically, November and December are good months to be Long on EUR. In overall, if we assume that news will be neutral during November 2015, EURUSD is expected to enter a short-term uptrend that will bring it to 1.1350 and up to 1.1500.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Here are some important EURUSD Support and Resistance Levels:

■ ST Supply Levels: 1.1050-1.1070 | 1.1100 | 1.1140 | 1.1340 | 1.1385 | 1.1430-1.1500

■ ST Demand Levels: 1.0890-1.0895 | 1.079-1.081

Lower EURUSD levels than 1.079 should be stopped (Stop-Loss entry). Wait until the new EURUSD uptrend is confirmed before you trade more aggressively.

Read more: EURUSD and USDX November 2015

Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD May-June 2015

Market: Foreign Exchange

Asset: EURUSD

EURUSD Outlook

EURUSD is found on a correctional uptrend after reaching its 12-year low during March, 13th 2015 (1.0461). Today EURUSD is trading at about 1.1150 relatively close to its periodic high of 1.1391. There are many explanations for this EURUSD uptrend. First of all the US economy during the first few months of 2015 is found on a mild contraction. Many analysts argue that the strong US Dollar is to blame for this economic contraction. If this point of view is correct then a further US Dollar appreciation could jeopardize the overall positive outlook of the US economy for 2015.

Forecasting EURUSD

Here is our forecast regarding EURUSD:

■ Short-Term: The short-term trend favors the EUR. Note that the main agreement between Eurogroup and Greece is expected to take place in the 27th or the 29th of May 2015. As concerns technical analysis, the support level of 1.1065 might prove very crucial. If EURUSD proves capable of holding that level it will signal the aggressive continuation of the current uptrend.

■ Mid-Term: EURUSD mid-term course is a clear mystery. The recent 12-years low suggests that EURUSD depreciation has happened too fast and it seems that as concerns the next few weeks Euro could rebound further against the US Dollar. There is a scenario that EURUSD could move up to 1.2490. The resistance level of 1.1610 (if reached) might prove very crucial for EURUSD. Check the resistance levels below.

■ Long-Term: The long-term trend still favors the USD. Most probably in the next 6-8 month,s EURUSD will reach 1:1. According to technical analysis, we are going to see even 0.86. A recent report from Morgan Stanley is in line with our forecast.

Read more: EURUSD Trading Signal May-June 2015

Free Forex Trading Signals: US Dollar Index (USDX) and EURUSD October 2015

□ Market: Foreign Exchange

□ Asset: US Dollar Index (USDX) and EURUSD

□ Forecast: USDX Local-High on October, 9th 2015, after Long on EURUSD

For the first time, TCI indicator is applied to the US Dollar Index (USDX). All TCI readings are available below, by pressing the USDX TCI tab.

US Dollar Outlook

The Foreign Exchange Market has been pretty volatile lately as expectations for an early US interest rate hike proved false. The US Dollar was sold heavily in early October. On October 2nd, 2015, EURUSD surged from 1.114 to 1.131 in the blink of an eye. This has happened as the US NonFarm Payrolls reached 142,000K, instead of 200,000K, as it was anticipated by most analysts. After the heavy sell-off, the US Dollar gained quickly some ground back, proving it is still strong. As you can see in the following analysis, the US Dollar is expected to stay strong for a few more days and then to enter a short-term downtrend.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Let’s see some important levels for EURUSD:

□ EURUSD ST Supply Levels: 1.1430-1.1465 | 1.1650 | 1.1710-1.1715 | 1.1750

□ EURUSD ST Demand Levels: 1.1135-1.1150 | 1.1010-1.1020 | 1.0800-1.0850

Read more: US Dollar Index (USDX) and EURUSD October 2015

TCI Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD March-April 2015

“Never Trade against a Major Central Bank”

□ Market: Foreign Exchange

□ Asset: EURUSD

□ Forecast: EURUSD downtrend continuation (↓) after a short-term uptrend correction

EURUSD Outlook

If there is one constant rule when trading Forex, this rule is “Never trade against the will of a Major Central Bank”. Major Central Banks such as the FED, ECB, SNB, and BoJ are holding a lot of cards under the table and are always willing to manipulate their currencies according to their long-term monetary strategy. In this current Forex Market, the only major central bank that does not have a problem seeing its currency moving higher is the FED. ECB and BoJ are both focusing on flexible monetary policies in a last attempt to see their economies grow again. On the other hand, the US economy is growing, US unemployment is shrinking and a hard-currency policy is on the way as the US rates are expected to start rising in the second half of 2015. In such a dynamic environment the US Dollar is expected to move even higher against the Euro and the Japanese Yen in the next few months. We shall probably see EURUSD trading at 1:1 in the next couple of months.

But as the Euro against the USD is trading near the 12-year low and as USD has gained about 10% against the EUR in only one month we shall examine if this is the time for a temporary Euro correction against the USD. According to TCI, the EURUSD is an oversold market as TCI reading reached again -11% as in the case of our previous EURUSD trading signal in February 2015. By the time of this analysis, EURUSD is trading at 1.0560. Given the neutral news, EURUSD can move to 1.0650 and even at 1.0750.

Evaluating Our Previous Trading Signal

Read more: EURUSD March-April 2015

EURUSD, GBPUSD July-August 2015

□ Market: Forex (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

□ Forecast: The US Dollar remains strong

Forex Market Outlook

Despite the tricky political conditions in Eurozone, investors in the Foreign Exchange market remain relatively calm. ECB currently seems willing to support the Euro in order to absorb the reverberations of the Greek Political turmoil. This is a temporary action and we shouldn’t expect long-lasting interventions from ECB against the main market momentum. From the other hand, the US economy is strong based on June's fundamental updates. US retail sales are growing, the number of building permits is growing faster and the monthly deficit of the Trade Balance is shrinking (-$40.88 billion). The US unemployment rate at 5.5%, a little bit higher than forecasted (5.4%). As concerns the United Kingdom, BoE anticipates inflation is going to pick up towards the end of the year 2015. During June, the interest rate decisions in the US, EU, and the UK remained unchanged. According to the current fundamental environment, the US interest rates are expected higher in the second semester of 2015.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Technical analysis chart and important supply and demand levels for EURUSD.

■ EURUSD Supply Levels: 1.1280 | 1.1390 | 1.1475 | 1.1645 | 1.1855 | 1.2025 | 1.2345 | 1.2520

■ EURUSD Demand Levels: 1.1020 | 1.0775 | 1.0540 | 1.0475 | 1.0225 | 1.0000 | 0.9855 | 0.9630

Read more: EURUSD, GBPUSD Trading Signals July-August 2015

Forex Trading Signals: February 2015

"If you trade EUR against the USD in 2015 don’t expect something more than Bear Market Rallies"

Market: Foreign Exchange

Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

Forex Market Outlook for 2015

Lately, the Euro managed to gain some ground against the US Dollar. During the 26th of January 2015, EURUSD moved below 1.11 (intraday low 1.10965) -Now it is trading above 1.13 supported by the manufacturing production in Eurozone which rose at the fastest pace of the past 6 months. This short reaction may lead EURUSD a little bit higher (maybe 1.15) but it seems that it is a pure technical reaction. Most probably 2015 will be the year of the US Dollar. FED is the only major monetary authority that has no problems seeing its currency moving higher against other majors. Furthermore, between the 5 majors (USD, EUR, CHF, JPY, and GBP) only the US Dollar can offer higher interest rates in 2015. Eurozone suffers from deflation and slow growth and loosening its monetary policy is the only way to go. The same is valid for Japan and as Haruhiko Kuroda of BoJ said recently the weakening of the Yen is not hurting Japan’s economy. In this volatile environment, EURUSD is expected to start a new downtrend in the following weeks. From the other hand, the UK economy is in a better position than the euro area and that is likely to reverberate in the EURGBP exchange rate during the following months. In overall for 2015, we should expect USD to be the best performer against the Euro, the British Sterling and the Japanese Yen and the European Currency to be the worst performer against the US Dollar, the British Sterling, and the Japanese Yen.

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Our Previous Trading Signal

{slider= Previous Forex Trading Signal}

In our previous trading signal, we have referred to EURUSD and GBPUSD and forecasted a short-term correction before the downtrend starts again. Actually only GBPUSD managed to achieve a descent reaction. As concerns GBPUSD, we have mentioned the 8th of January as the most probable turnaround date. GBPUSD indeed started a bullish correction during the 8th of January 2015 that brought 1.5270 a few days later. As we said before, bear market rallies are all we can expect if we trade against the USD in 2015.

► Here is the Full Trading Signal

Read more: Forex Trading Signals February 2015