Dow Jones Industrial and the Duration of the Bull Party

Dow Jones Industrial (Dow 30) is one of the best stock-market indices in the world to test a technical analysis system. It is such an old index that can provide a unique insight into historical data. Dow Jones has entered recently a price area of historical highs. Using fundamental and technical analysis we are going to see what happens next. But let's start with the signal first.

From a Macroeconomic Point of View

The US economy is in a much better condition than 2 years ago. Growth is stable, unemployment is falling and the credibility of the US financial system is improving. What could ruin this nice macroeconomic picture could derive mainly from 2 facts:

Factor-1) The European Crisis

The European crisis is certainly a very important issue for the world economy. In 2013, Europe is officially in recession while the political conditions in the South of Europe are making the macroeconomic environment unpredictable. For the time, the last episode of the European Crisis (Cyprus Crisis) seems to come to an end and during the next couple of weeks, things in Europe can get back to normal.

Factor-2) A Stronger Dollar

As unemployment is falling and the US economy is growing the concerns of FED are moving more to inflation. The US interest rates have only one way to go and that is up. Higher US interest rates given the bad condition of the European Economy could strengthen the Dollar against the Euro to 1.20, but even to 1.0 in the next couple of years. That could jeopardize the macroeconomic prosperity of the US economy. But for the time, Euro is already in oversold levels against the US Dollar and it is expected to remain in the area above 1.2900 for some time ahead. So as concerns the next couple of weeks a stronger US Dollar is not a danger for the US economy and the Dow Jones Industrial that we are interested in.

Read more: Dow Jones Industrial March 2013

Global Markets and Nasdaq Composite Report -A Correction is always better than the Formation of a new Bubble

Recently the US stock-markets have witnessed significant selling pressure along with other major stock-markets around the globe. According to many analysts, the equity markets are overpriced while according to some others the growth in the US economy and the corporate earnings justifies even higher market values. As concerns the bonds market, US bonds are under pressure too and as the hedge fund manager Leon Cooperman said: “Investors buying bonds right now are playing with dynamite”.

In this analysis, we are going to evaluate what happens next regarding the Global Markets and especially as concerns the Nasdaq Composite. Whatever is the outcome of this analysis don’t panic if you want to exit the market, you will have your chance to do it the right way.

Cash will be king again, it always becomes king at the end

According to one of our past analysis (some months ago) we have mentioned that the current bullish circle of the global capital markets is coming to an end. This forecast was based on both fundamental and technical analysis. In addition, we said, “Cash will be king again, it always becomes king at the end”. Fortunately for some investors and unfortunately for many others this forecast becomes true.

What Happens Next regarding the US and the Global Equity Markets

In order to evaluate the current market conditions and to be able to forecast what happens next, let’s see first some important facts regarding the US stock-markets:

(a) Basic Reasons why the US Stock Markets should go up (↑)

√ The US economy enjoys stable growth and looks stronger than ever before, since 2008

√ Unemployment is declining and income is rising

√ US corporate earnings are stronger and according to some analysts there are a lot of investment opportunities left in the market (for example Goldman Sachs' analyst David Kostin)

» Check Goldman’s Recent Report on S&P here

√ There is still excessive liquidity in the market driven by the almost zero interest rates

Read more: Nasdaq Trading Signal October 2014

The US Dollar Index and the Dow Jones Industrial (March-April 2017)

• ■ Markets: Foreign Exchange, Equity Markets
• ■ Assets: US Dollar Index (USDX) / US30 (DJIA)

Financial Markets –The General Outlook

After Donald Trump’s election, investors anticipate that high inflation will return in the US. There are some good arguments backing that assumption, including new Trump’s policies regarding tax cuts, higher public investment, and the imposition of tariffs on imported industrial goods. Lower unemployment and higher wages strengthen furthermore the prospect for higher consumer prices in the future. These inflationary anticipations create positive momentum for the US Dollar and the US equity markets. On the other hand, higher inflation means higher interest rates and that signals an escape from the bullish bond market of the past 30 years. It is no secret that since November 2016, 4 trillion USD have flown from the bond markets to the equity markets. Furthermore, as concerns equity markets, the VIX equity volatility remains close to historic lows signaling the continuation of the equity rally, at least for the time.

Chart: CBOE VIX Volatility Chart (S&P500)

Trading Rebates: » Forex Trading Rebates via Forex-Rebates.com

Applying TCI on USDX & Dow Jones Industrial

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) applied on the US Dollar Index (USDX) and on Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The chart below shows graphically the daily TCI indications for the period of November 2010 to March 2017. The USDX (upper) chart includes the 89-day simple moving average (SMA), while the US30 (lower) chart includes the 144-day SMA.

Read more: USDX and DJIA March-April 2017

TCI Trading Signals and the NASDAQ Composite Analysis for May 2014

“Cash will be king again, it always becomes king at the end”

This TCI analysis concerns the Nasdaq Composite Index. We are going to investigate Nasdaq Composite and forecast its course for the upcoming years. But before investigating further Nasdaq Composite let’s evaluate our previous TCI signal on GBPUSD.

Previous TCI Forex Trading Signal

In our previous trading signal published on April, 28th we have forecasted an uptrend for the British Pound against the US Dollar using the TCI model.

“TCI is a technical analysis model developed 100% in-house by TradingCenter.org”

TCI Indications on Nasdaq Composite for May 2014

As we have mentioned in the past the real power of TCI is its ability to forecast the time pattern. By using the TCI-Short Model (TCI v1.2) we are going to forecast the course of Nasdaq Composite for May 2014. TCI indicates a short-term upcoming bullish market for Nasdaq ending on the 27th of May 2014.

■ Selling Target: 27th of May 2014

Read more: NASDAQ Composite Index May 2014

Dow Jones Report & TCI Trading Signal

• Asset: Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA)
• Period: September-October 2015

TCI Forecast: DJIA to complete its uptrend in September (↑) starting a new bear market in early October (↓)

Dow Jones has moved considerably lower since July 2015, from 18.137 points in July, 20th now it is trading at 16.102 points. There are quite a few reasons that could explain why the investor’s sentiment has changed from bullish to bearish so rapidly. Nevertheless, what seems to drive the market at this point isn’t hard fundamental data but a fragile investor’s psychology. The US Equity Markets are rising 7 years in a row now, since 2009, and maybe it’s time for a strong correction that will make valuations cheap again.

Is Dow Jones an expensive market today in terms of earnings? Let’s find out how the P/Es and Dividends (%) of the US Markets are formed after the August slump.

Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Earnings Report

These are the P/Es and Dividend Yields of the major US Equity Indices as concerns the valuations of September, 4th 2015.

+Today: September, 4th 2015

Read more: Dow Jones September-October 2015

TRADING CENTER INDICATOR (TCI): TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Dow Jones Industrial closed on Friday the 16^th of November at 12,588.31 points. The downtrend which started one month ago still continues. Dow was about 13,661 points in the middle of October 2012, so the drop since then is more than 1,000 points, so far. In order to estimate the duration of that downtrend market we are implementing the TCI Indicator on Dow Jones Industrial and here are some results.

TCI on Dow at a Glance: 

• Dow Price: 12,588.31
• Short-Trend: ↓
• Mid-Trend: Possible Rebound, ↑
• Possible Turnaround Dates: 20th of November / 30th of November

TCI Indicator on Dow Jones

In the table below we may see some recent daily statistics concerning the Dow Industrial, and at the last column we may find the daily calculated price of TCI indicator. As we may easily observe, Dow Jones trade inside a clear downtrend channel. TCI indicator is found today at about -11.02 {based on the closing of Dow at 12,588 points}. Historically that level of TCI has given traders good returns of 5-10%.

Read more: TCI Trading Signal on Dow Jones November 2012