Forex Market Outlook & Trading Signals for January-February 2015

Market: Foreign Exchange

Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

The US Dollar against a basket of major currencies ended 2014 with record gains of more than 12%. Actually, this was the best USD performance of the past 10 years. In this analysis, we are going to investigate what happens next in the Foreign Exchange market as 2015 starts, regarding EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD.

The Previous TCI Signal

During November 2014 we have pointed that December is traditionally the best month to buy the Euro against the US Dollar. But, it seems that the long-term strength of the USD proved more important than any statistics and this forecast hasn’t proved right -Giving an end to an extended row of successful Forex signals during 2014.

Foreign Exchange Market Outlook

Euro continues to be under high pressure due to political, economic and psychological factors. As the European Central Bank is expected to ease aggressively monetary policy in 2015, many hedge fund managers forecast EURUSD to 1:1 in the following 12 months. Mario Draghi, the ECB President recently said that ECB is making preparations to alter the extent of its measures in early 2015. From the other hand, the demand for US dollar remains strong due to high US growth rates but also due to expectations for higher interest rates, starting in the third quarter of 2015.

TCI on EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis Indicator developed by TradingCenter.

Here are the TCI Indications regarding EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY.

◙ EURUSD TCI Indications

TCI reading for EURUSD is currently found at TCI = -6.75%. This shows an oversold market and most probably we should expect a normal correction before the US Dollar becomes very aggressive again. In any case, don’t forget that this is the year of the US Dollar, therefore, be very careful and give extra weight to upcoming fundamental updates before trading against the USD.

Read more: Forex Trading Signals January-February 2015

Forex Trade Signals: USDJPY September 2014

◙ Forex Asset: USDJPY

◙ TCI Forecast: Correction (↓) is closing

USDJPY Outlook

In numerous previous articles, we have highlighted the upcoming strength of the US Dollar. USD interest rates will rise during 2015 as FED’s inflation concerns will grow stronger than its unemployment concerns. During the past few weeks, the US Dollar has shown real strength. This analysis is focused on the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. USDJPY is found now at 108.626 considerably higher than the 104.337 levels found at the start of September 2014. We are going to analyze if the current bullish USDJPY trend is likely to be continued or it is the time for a correction.

USDJPY Analysis Preface

As you can see in the chart below, USJPY is booming for quite some time. Just two years ago, USDJPY was found at 77.00 (September 2012) now it is found above 108.00. This tremendous uptrend can be explained as the Central Bank of Japan during the past 2 years has implemented a highly flexible monetary policy aiming to strengthen the growth potential of the weak Japanese economy.

USDJPY Technical Analysis - What happens next regarding USDJPY?

As concerns, the long-run, the ultimate target for USDJPY is between 119.00 and 124.00. These levels were reached again back in 2006. To be honest I believe that during 2015 we are going to witness USDJPY trading at 120.00. Certainly, this can not happen in one or two months. The current levels must be absorbed 100% before USDJPY moves higher.

Read more: Forex Trade Signals USDJPY September 2014

Free Forex Trading Signals:

Historically, December is the Best Month to buy the Euro against the USD

Assets: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

TCI Forecast: Given neutral news, Euro is expected to turn bullish against the US Dollar (↑). Starting of the new uptrend the first few days of December 2014

Potential Reversal Dates: the 26th of November 2014 or the 3rd of December 2014 (based on TCI readings)

In most of our 2014 Forex reports, we have never lost a chance to highlight the strength of the US Dollar against the other majors. The US Dollar is moving in a strong uptrend against EUR and JPY based on the growing US economy and the upcoming period of rising US rates, starting in 2015. On the other hand, most of the other majors are becoming victims of slow-growing economies or even recession as in the case of Japan. If we take into account all these fundamental data, the long-term USD uptrend will most probably continue during the following months. The USD uptrend is strong but whenever the gains are extreme, correction is always inevitable. According to our analysis the month December 2014 will turn to be one of the months that the US Dollar will lose some ground (correct) against other majors and especially as concerns the EURO.

Evaluating the Previous Trading Signal of TradingCenter.org

Our previous trading signal was one of the best trading signals we have ever published on TradingCenter.org. Not only we have forecasted the upcoming USD appreciation against all majors during November 2014 but we have also forecasted the exact time for the beginning of this new uptrend (last days of October).

We said exactly: “USD correction is coming to an end, we expect the formation of a new USD uptrend (↑). The new uptrend is expected to commence in the last few days of October 2014 and to peak during late November 2014”

By that time USDJPY was trading at 106.875, now it is trading at about 118.00. This is a huge difference in terms of winning pips, in just one month.

Forex Market Current Outlook

The Japanese Yen has been under huge selling pressure since Oct. 31st, 2014 when the Bank of Japan announced more stimulus measures and after the recent disappointing release of the Japanese GDP. The British Pound Sterling has also been under pressure due to the disappointing inflation reports from Bank of England. As concerns the Euro area, Euro stills suffers from slow growth and limited inflation and tanks each time the President of ECB Mario Draghi decides to speak. If you are long on Euro you don’t want Mario Draghi to speak these days.

Read more: GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, November 2014

Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD September 2014

Market: Forex

Asset: EURUSD

EURUSD Outlook

During summer 2014 the US Dollar gained important ground against the European currency. Since early 2014, TradingCenter has alerted Forex traders about an upcoming USD appreciation against the Euro that will last for many years ahead. But this is a long-term approach and during that forecasted bearish course we are going to witness many important bear-market rallies. In this analysis, we are going to investigate if the time of an important bear-market rally has come for EURUSD. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and any ECB decision can highly affect the upcoming EURUSD exchange rate.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Strong Supply Level: 1.3421

Strong Demand Level: 1.2945 / 1.2987

TCI on EURUSD

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a unique Technical Analysis Indicator developed by TradingCenter.

Here are the TCI Indications regarding EURUSD that include 15 trading days ahead. As you can see TCI forecasts a local low during Wednesday the 3rd of September 2014. At this point, we have pointed a Local Low in Red. The fourth of September 2014 seems to be a technical turnaround date according to TCI. But this is the same day that ECB meets to take an important rate decision! Is that a pure coincidence or is it the magic nature of TCI numbers?

Read more: Free Forex Trading Signals: EURUSD September 2014

US Dollar against other Majors October-November 2014

■ Market / Asset: Forex / US Dollar against other Majors

■ TCI Forecast: USD correction is coming to an end, then the formation of a new USD uptrend (↑)

■ Momentum: New Uptrend is expected to commence in the last few days of October 2014 and to peak during late November 2014

Foreign Exchange Market Outlook

The strength of the US Dollar as concerns the next 6-12 months is undisputable, but Forex currencies are not trading like shares and this strength cannot be transformed into a single directional trend. During September 2014 the US Dollar appreciated very rapidly against other majors as you can see in the TCI tables presented below. This rapid and straightforward move created an overbought US Dollar market (EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD). The correction was inevitable. Neither the FED nor the ECB is willing to allow USD straightforward currency moves which may jeopardize the real economy in both continents. The US Dollar appreciation will happen in the right timing and according to the right market momentum. In that context, we shall expect USD bullish markets of 4-6% and then corrections of 2-3% in time patterns lasting 3-4 months in overall.

Evaluating the Previous Forex Trading Signal on USDJPY (September 2014)

In our previous Forex Trading Signal, we had indicated an upcoming correction on USDJPY. By that time USDJPY was trading at 108.626. In addition, we have indicated as the first strong resistance level 110.75. USDJPY in October the 1st reached 110.08 and after the correction started. During October the 15th, USDJPY reached the local low of 105.193. The signal was confirmed.

The Previous Forex Signal: ►Forex Trade Signals -USDJPY September 2014

TCI on USD against Other Majors

The Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a complete Technical Analysis Tool developed by TradingCenter. What makes TCI unique is that it can forecast both upcoming trends and time pattern formations. ►More About TCI

Here are the TCI Indications regarding the US Dollar against EUR, GBP, and JPY:

Read more: US Dollar Trading Signal October-November 2014

EURUSD Forex Trading Signal June 2014

May has proved once more an unfavorable month for EURUSD. The recent results of the European Elections formed the impression in the market that the European Economy will make an important turn towards growth in the upcoming years. In May 2014, the ECB President Mario Draghi argued that the EURO strength is the cause for a ‘Serious Concern’. The potential for a new EU growth policy will consequently lead to a more flexible Euro rate against the US Dollar the next couple of years. As concerns the long-term perspective, that is bad news for Euro.

On the other hand, as concerns the short-term EURUSD course, according to our TCI Model the European Currency against the US Dollar has entered an oversold area that may lead EURUSD higher in the upcoming weeks. Note that June is traditionally a very good month for EUR against the USD (check the statistics table below this article).

The current TCI trading signal forecasts the course of EURUSD as concerns the upcoming weeks.

Forex Asset: EURUSD

Rate: 1.36328

TCI Forecast: Uptrend Correction (↑)

Before investigating further EURUSD let’s evaluate our previous signal on the Nasdaq Composite.

Previous TCI Trading Signal on Nasdaq Composite

In our previous TCI analysis, we have indicated an upcoming short-term bullish market for Nasdaq Composite, although we keep a negative perspective as concerns the long-term.

{slider= Previous Trading Signal}

By the time of our previous trading signal (May, 19th before opening) Nasdaq was found at 4,090.57 points. We have indicated an upcoming bullish market and a selling target for the 27th of May 2014. Today Nasdaq is found at 4,242.62 points and our trading signal based on TCI indications was fully confirmed.

■ TCI Signal: Short-Term Bullish Market

■ Nasdaq Starting: 4,090.57 points

■ Selling Target: 27th of May 2014

■ Nasdaq Today: 4,242.62 points

Read more: EURUSD Forex Trading Signal June 2014