Free TCI Forex Signals: GBP/USD

We are going to investigate the Forex pair GBP/USD which is currently trading in an uptrend channel. What is interesting about GBP/USD is not the uptrend itself. What is interesting is the probability that GBP/USD will provide high fluctuations, within or outside this channel.

TCI Signal on GBP/USD & TCI Chart

First, let’s evaluate the results of our previous TCI signal on the price of gold.

Evaluating the Previous TCI Signal on Gold

In our previous TCI signal, we had forecasted a bull market rally in the price of Gold. We defined two major target prices (1,419 and 1,459 per ounce). Until today, the 28th of April, both targets were met. Gold moved smoothly upwards with straight corrections to major resistance levels. Probably every bullish day-trader did enjoy it. The best thing is to trade a market technically oversold and fundamental stable, and that is what happened to gold.

» Here is our latest TCI signal -On the price of gold

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The following chart refers to the GBP/USD Forex pair, for the period starting in the 31 of May 2010 and ending in the 26th of May 2013. In the lower level of the chart there is a TCI chart on GBP/USD during the same period.

MT4 Chart Explanation

Since January 2013 the GBP/USD has entered an upward trend that forms the channel A//B in the chart. The points indicated as (1), (2), (3) are some important resistance levels discussed below. Finally, in the upper MT4 chart we have included a Fibonacci Retracement.

Simple TCI Indicator Chart analysis

If we take a look at TCI indications at the lower part of the chart, during the same period (31 May 2010until26 May 2013), we can conclude that most of the times TCI peaked above +5.0%. In that sense, the overbought levels of TCI are above +5.0%. Today TCI on GBP/USD is about 3.1% as you can see in the above chart and also at the TCI data table presented at the end of this free signal. Given TCI indications we could conclude that GBP/USD is not yet overbought. That means that we could see an expansion of the upward TCI trend of about 2.0%. Therefore and according to TCI analysis GBP/USD may move to 1.5780-15810.

Resistance / Support and Periodic Peaks

GBP/USD at 1.5432 today is continuing an uptrend movement, but we shouldn’t expect that this movement will go one-way. There is a clear channel which is formed between the two Trendlines (A, B) and probably GBP/USD is expected to remain within that channel.

Crucial dates that we could see peaks and after corrections are:

a) +2days or the 30th of April 2013

b) +8days or the 8th of May 2013

c) +11days or the 13th of May 2013

Three Scenarios for GBP/USD

1) If GBP/USD remains in the pre-mentioned channel A//B, then we should expect a soft upward trend with intraday corrections. (BASIC SCENARIO)

3) If GBP/USD brakes the channel A//B Upwards, then a very fast move will bring GBP/USD even to 1.6300.

4) If GBP/USD brakes the channel A//B Downwards, then it should probably try the previous low (1.5215).

Our Trading Tip: The upper and the lower points in the A//B formation will provide the perfect stop-loss points for short-term traders.

GBP/USD from a Fundamental Point of View -British Economy Vs US Economy

Here is a comparison between the two economies (British and the US)

The British and US economies are traditionally moving into a similar economic cycle. Great Britain economic cycle is closer to the US economic cycle than to the Eurozone economic cycle. In terms of GDP change, the US economy is stronger (growth 1.8%) but of course given the fact that the US has imposed a much more expansive monetary policy in the US economy after 2008 than Great Britain did. Despite the higher money measures and the lower interest rates (0.25%), inflation is lower in the US (2.0%) and that means that FED is doing a nice job. The unemployment rate is almost the same in both economies (7.9% in the UK and 7.7% in the US). As concerns government debt per GDP, the British economy is currently in a better position (90.7% per GDP) while the deficits in government budget of both countries are almost the same (-6.3% and -7.0%).

TCI DATA TABLE

Here are the Market Data of GBP/USD since the 26^th of April 2013. In the last column, you can see TCI data which after the 26^th of April become a forecast.

Short Conclusion:

GBP/USD for the time is strong and it is possible to move to 1.5800 during the following weeks, but we should be extremely cautious if we decide to trade it intraday. The basic scenario suggests that we should expect intraday corrections while this uptrend will go on.

□ Giorgos Protonotarios,

for Trading Center (April 28, 2013)

Free TCI Forex Signals: GBP/USD April 2013

The EUR/USD exchange rate is falling as the economic and the political risk in Eurozone is growing. Recent developments including the uncertainty in the Euro area after the Italian elections are enforcing the Euro depreciation against the US Dollar. The year 2013 will be a year of recession for Eurozone and growth is expected not before 2014, so a cut in the Euro Interest rate seems today very possible.

Technical Analysis on EUR/USD using TCI+ Indicator

Trading Center Indicator (TCI) is a technical analysis system that can be used in any kind of financial market. (»Trading Center Indicator). In this analysis, a new version of TCI is presented. This new version which is called TCI+ is designed exclusively for the Forex Market. Two EUR/USD charts are following which correspond to the same time frame (January 1999 – February 2013).

Chart: EUR/USD 1999-2013

Read more: Free Trading Signals: TCI ON EURUSD February 2013

Previous EUR/USD Signal Confirmation

The previous TCI signal has proved considerably accurate. On our previous TCI analysis on EUR/USD we have warned you of an upcoming US Dollar appreciation against Euro. By that time EUR/USD was at 1.3089 (2/25/2013). We targeted the area of 1.2910-1.2920. We also suggested that after EUR/USD reaches that particular area a strong turnaround is expected to happen.

◘ The Previous TCI Signal Details: -EUR/USD (2/25/13): 1.3089 -Target Price: 1.2910-1.2920 {»What is Trading Center Indicator?}

The New TCI Signal on EUR/USD & TCI Charting

Here is EUR/USD historical Line chart (since 1999) and the corresponding TCI chart during the same period. TCI today is about -8.0%, which is a sign of oversold levels.

Chart: EUR/USD Historic Line Chart & TCI Chart (January 1999 – March 2013)

Read more: EURUSD MARCH 2013

The Equity Markets in 2024-2025

In the past couple of months, there have been changes in the economic and geopolitical landscape. Rising unemployment and the escalation in the Middle East created volatility in the global markets. Investors are feeling confused while the upcoming US elections make things even more complex.

These are some of the key concerns for investors for the upcoming months and years:

• What are the probabilities for slower economic growth or even a mini-recession in 2025?
• Will the upcoming FED/ECB rate cuts be enough to deal with this challenging economic environment?
• How dangerous can prove for the global economy a potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East?
• Can the war on Ukraine end in 2025?
• Which candidate for the US presidency will be best for the economy and the stock market?
• What happens to the corporate tax rate if Democrats win?
• What will be the impact on global commerce and inflation if Trump wins and applies a 10% tax on imports?

Let’s start with the global economic outlook before moving forward with the impact of the US elections.

Read more: Stock Market Analysis for 2024-2025 - How Expensive are Stocks?

The summer hasn’t started yet as concerns new Forex market developments and currency fluctuations. There is this filling in the air that something is about to change in the global monetary “Status Quo” during the next 3-4 months. FED is changing the rules of the game and preparing world markets for a new monetary policy. In our last Forex Report (two weeks ago) we have forecasted that the good days for Euro against the US Dollar are about to end.

EURUSD at that time was traded at 1.3120 while today it is traded at about 1.2830. The mid-trend of EURUSD is clearly bearish but as concerns, the short-term things become much more complicated (Check the TCI analysis at the end of this Report).

Here is what happens next.

A Short Analysis about What is Coming

After its recent announcements, FED is obviously preparing the global market for higherUSrates. The unemployment figures are improving so FED’s main concern is moving towards dealing with the upcoming inflation. That mathematically leads to higher interest rates after the end of summer 2013. higher interest rates (currently at 0.25%) will make US Bonds and the US Dollar more attractive to domestic and foreign investors. That will lead to a stronger US Dollar, and especially as concerns the EURUSD. A stronger US Dollar means also the devaluation of all commodity prices that are valued in US Dollars. This is happening because as USD is appreciating these commodities must devaluate in order to maintain the real value and not to disturb the balance between real demand and supply. This mechanism explains why the Gold Price has crushed during the past couple of weeks when USD became stronger.

■ US Interest Rates (↑) → USD (↑) → Commodity Prices (↓)

Read more: Free Forex Trading Signals EURUSD JULY 2013

MOVE can provide an early alert regarding a changing risk sentiment in the bond market but also in in the general financial markets, ahead of the equity markets.

The MOVE Index measures U.S. interest rate volatility. The index tracks the movement in U.S. Treasury yield volatility implied by current prices of 1-month OTC options.

Read more: The MOVE Volatility Index and the Correlation to the S&P500